The stock market's extreme strength: what's next


The U.S. stock market has been extremely strong over the past 6 months.
With 1 day left in September, the S&P 500 is on the verge of going up 6 months in a row.

Historically, this is what happens next to the U.S. stock market.

As you can see, strength usually begets more strength. You can see that the optimal scenario is 9 months later, when all but 1 historical cases are bullish. (The only bearish case fell -0.01%).
More specifically, the U.S. stock market has COMPLETELY ignored “sell in May and go away” this year. With 1 day left in September, it is on the verge of going up every single month from April – September.
Here’s what happens next to the S&P (historically).

Once again, the optimal case is 9 months later.

Conclusion

The U.S. stock market’s own price action is strong. Based on where the Medium-Long Term Model is right now, the U.S. stock market will probably rally towards mid-2019, when it will make a major top.
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