Cryptocurrencies on April 27, 2018: outlook


*I don’t trade cryptocurrencies. The best strategy for trading a crypto bubble is a classic trend following strategy.
Here’s my outlook for various cryptocurrencies based on the aforementioned strategy.

Discretionary outlook based on charts

  1. Bitcoin’s real test is at $12k. That’s the bull-bear decision point.
  2. Ethereum’s real test is at $975-$1000. That’s the bull-bear decision point.
  3. Bitcoin Cash is near a bull/bear decision point.
  4. Ripple’s real test is at $1.2.

1 am: Bitcoin’s real test is at $12k. That’s the bull-bear decision point.
Bitcoin is making a pullback right now, a little sooner than I thought.
It’s impossible to know if Bitcoin’s bear market is over or not. Crypto doesn’t really have fundamentals, so we can only use standard technical analysis.
The defining characteristic of a “bear market” = “lower highs and lower lows”. The previous highs was at $12k (multiple resistances there). As long as Bitcoin doesn’t break above this resistance, then it is stuck in a bear market and will probably head lower.
But if Bitcoin breaks above $12k (i.e. makes a higher high), it’s a big sign that a new crypto bull market may be starting.

With the lower highs thesis in mind…
1 am: Ethereum’s real test is at $975-$1000. That’s the bull-bear decision point.
That’s the “higher high” price for Ethereum. If Ethereum makes a higher high, it implies that a new bull market could be starting.

1 am: Bitcoin Cash is near a bull/bear decision point.
Bitcoin Cash is one of the first major cryptocurrencies to be on the verge of making a higher high.
If it makes a higher high, then it’s a big sign that Bitcoin Cash’s bear market is over.

1 am: Ripple’s real test is at $1.2
Ripple is still stuck in a bear market with lower lows and lower highs. But if it breaks above $1.2, then that will be a major bull market sign.

Read Cryptocurrencies on April 25, 2018: outlook

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