Cryptocurrencies on January 10, 2018: outlook


*I don’t trade cryptocurrencies. The best strategy for trading a crypto bubble is a classic trend following strategy.
Here’s the outlook for various cryptocurrencies based on the aforementioned strategy.

Discretionary outlook based on charts

  1. TRON looks like a lot like Ripple
  2. Bitcoin is channeling higher.
  3. Trend followers should’ve gotten out of Ripple yesterday.

3:24 pm. TRON is breaking down just like Ripple
Trend followers in TRON should’ve already gotten out. Now that TRON’s insanely strong momentum has broken down, nobody knows how low TRON can go. Catching the falling knife is a dangerous game in an insanely volatile market like cryto.

Trend followers should wait until TRON stabilizes and breaks out before going long.
9:49 am. Bitcoin is channeling higher. Bullish pattern is still intact.
The best crypto traders are split on Bitcoin. Some think it will crash below $10k, and others think it will soar above $20k.
Personally, I think that guessing is pointless. Trend followers don’t need to guess. They just need to wait for a breakout / breakdown.
But from a contrarian standpoint, Bitcoin’s bullish trend is still intact. Bitcoin is channeling higher after making a correction. But if Bitcoin breaks below the support trendline, then that will be a major warning sign.

9:43 am. Trend followers should’ve gotten out of Ripple yesterday.
After breaking down below its 9 ema yesterday, Ripple continues to decline.

In all honesty, no one knows when Ripple’s decline will end. Perhaps it has already bottomed. Perhaps it will fall to $1. This is anyone’s guess. That is why it’s better to use a trend following strategy than a contrarian strategy when trading cryptocurrencies. Trend followers make the most money during bubbles. Contrarian traders will get killed when the bubble ends.
Hence, trend followers should stay away from Ripple for now. Wait until it stabilizes, and then wait for the breakout.
 
 

4 comments add yours

  1. I thought that the stop was measured as 20 ema and not 9 ema as you say ripple.
    Regards,
    Felix

    • Yes, you can use a 20 ema or even a 15 ema. I think it has to do with how fast the market is rising. Markets that rise faster should use shorter moving averages. The ema that you use is completely up to you 🙂
      But the basic point is the same. Ripple’s insanely strong bullish momentum is gone. Time to move onto other hot cryptocurrencies (if you want to trade crypto, which I don’t.)

    • Momentum is insanely high, but in a bubble, insanely high momentum can go even higher. That’s why the trend following strategy says to stick with the trend and use a tight stop loss.

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