Cryptocurrencies on January 16, 2018: outlook


*I don’t trade cryptocurrencies. The best strategy for trading a crypto bubble is a classic trend following strategy.
Here’s my outlook for various cryptocurrencies based on the aforementioned strategy.

Discretionary outlook based on charts

  1. Don’t buy the dip in Litecoin.
  2. Ripple is still in freefall.
  3. IOTA is retesting the bottom of its range.
  4. Bitcoin Cash could break down from its consolidation range.
  5. Don’t catch the falling knife in Dash.
  6. Don’t catch the falling knife in Bitcoin.
  7. Trend followers in Ethereum should get ready to take their profits.

7:39 am. Don’t buy the dip in Litecoin.
Like Ripple, Litecoin is sitting on its 61.8% retracement. A breakdown below this support could bring Litecoin down to $120 – its 78.6% retracement level.

7:36 am. Ripple is still in freefall.
Do not try to catch the bottom, because nobody knows when Ripple will bottomRipple is currently sitting on its 61.8% retracement. The 78.6% retracement is at $0.84!

7:34 am. IOTA is retesting the bottom of its range.
IOTA has retested the bottom of its recent range. A breakdown below this support could trigger a crash. 50-50 chance.

7:32 am. Bitcoin Cash could break down from its consolidation range.
Bitcoin Cash’s chart isn’t as clear as other cryptocurrencies. But today’s decline sends the same message: nobody knows when the cryptocurrency bubble will end. But when it does end, prices will collapse. Do not “buy the dip” because you don’t know when the next dip will be a crash.

7:29 am. Don’t catch the falling knife in Dash.
Like Bitcoin, Dash is on the verge of making a new low. Don’t “buy the dip here”, because it might be more than just a dip. If Dash breaks down, it might collapse below $800.

7:24 am. Don’t catch the falling knife in Bitcoin.
Cryptocurrencies are falling across the board this morning. Bitcoin is close to retesting its low. Do not try to catch the falling knife. There’s a 50-50 chance that Bitcoin breaks down below $10k. If that happens, Bitcoin will collapse.

It’s safer to wait until Bitcoin makes a new all-time high before buying.
7:21 am. Trend followers in Ethereum should get ready to take their profits.
Ethereum has broken down below its 9 ema support. A close below this moving average signals that Ethereum’s rally is over, and that it will enter into a consolidation phase just like the other cryptocurrencies. If Ethereum closes below its 9ema, trend followers should consider taking their profits.

4 comments add yours

  1. Was a good day to sit out, that’s for sure. Thanks for the analysis, helps to see confirmation on my own, on the right track.

    • Yes, what a roller coaster day. When this bubble ends, cryptocurrencies will get crushed. But no one knows when it will end.
      Kind regards,
      Troy

    • Haha that’s very true Vincent. Apparently, a 50% decline only counts as “correction”. Only in cryptocurrencies.

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