Cryptocurrencies on January 27, 2018: outlook
*I don’t trade cryptocurrencies. The best strategy for trading a crypto bubble is a classic trend following strategy.
Here’s my outlook for various cryptocurrencies based on the aforementioned strategy.
Discretionary outlook based on charts
- IOTA has turned previous support into resistance.
- Bitcoin Cash is falling in a staircase pattern.
- Ethereum is in a triangle consolidation pattern.
- Bitcoin’s trend is going down.
11:02 am. IOTA has turned previous support into resistance.
This is a bearish pattern. Trend followers should not buy IOTA right now.
10:58 am. Bitcoin Cash is falling in a staircase pattern.
Bitcoin Cash has fallen, gone flat, fallen, gone flat…
This is a bearish staircase pattern. I expect Bitcoin Cash to make another leg lower if Bitcoin falls below $10k to its 200sma.
10:54 am. Ethereum is in a triangle consolidation pattern.
I think there’s a >50% chance that Ethereum breaks down below this range. If Bitcoin falls to its 200sma, then all the major alt-coins will be dragged down with it. Trend followers should not buy Ethereum right now.
10:50 am. Bitcoin’s trend is going down.
- Bitcoin is making lower highs and lower lows. Bearish
- Bitcoin has turned previous support at $11,500 – $12,000 into resistance.
Some of the best crypto traders I know think that Bitcoin will fall below $10,000, reach $7500, and then rally. $7500 is Bitcoin’s 200 daily moving average.
Read Cryptocurrencies on January 24, 2018.
Would there be indicators of a “rally” (one to buy) if Bitcoin drops to $7500 and then begins a move upward? Or would you stick to your previous advice of waiting to buy until Bitcoin reaches all time highs (>$19,000)?
The first sign would be if Bitcoin fell to $7500 and then went above $10k. That could be a false signal though.
The first real sign would be if Bitcoin made a higher high (i.e. above $12k).
I don’t have any skin in crypto. But if I did, I wouldn’t buy unless Bitcoin made a new all-time high. The key to success is capital preservation, especially in a bubble. Many people make millions in bubbles and lose all of it when the bubble ends.
Looking at your bitcoin chart, it looks like bitcoin needs to make a 3rd lower high peak above 14,000 as a “bull trap” and then continue its bearish pattern. I don’t trade cryptos as well since 1) I believe it’s an extraordinarily popular delusion with the madness of crowds chasing it 2) it’s the only worldwide currency where u cannot go to a broker and buy a share of common stock! every other worldwide currency you can buy a share of stock with but not bitcoin currency. Which further validates my point of bitcoin being an extraordinary popular delusion.