Cryptocurrencies on January 4, 2018: outlook


*I don’t trade cryptocurrencies. Here’s the best strategy for trading cryptocurrencies.
Here’s the outlook for various cryptocurrencies based on the aforementioned strategy.

Discretionary outlook based on charts

  1. IOTA is forming a consolidation.
  2. When will Bitcoin’s consolidation end?
  3. Litecoin is making a wedge. Don’t buy yet.
  4. Bitcoin is in a sideways consolidation. Do not buy yet.
  5. Ethereum is breaking out.
  6. Bitcoin cash is making a triangle pattern (consolidation pattern).
  7. Ripple continues to soar. Hold long positions with a moving stop loss.

3:28 pm: IOTA is forming a consolidation
IOTA has been forming a consolidation since the beginning of December. Don’t buy right now because you have no idea how long this consolidation will last. Wait until it breaksout on the upside before going long.

12:58 pm. When will Bitcoin’s consolidation end?
Bitcoin is in a triangle consolidation pattern. This triangle has shrunk to a very narrow range, and Bitcoin will either breakout or breakdown very soon. The first 2 weeks of January are seasonally bearish for Bitcoin.

The best crypto traders I know are still long term bullish on Bitcoin. They still think crypto has 1 more big leg in this bubble.

  1. The risky way to play Bitcoin right now is to buy it when it breaks out from the triangle resistance.
  2. The safer way to play Bitcoin is to sell when it breaks above the $20k resistance. That’s when Bitcoin’s next upwave is more guaranteed.

Use a tight moving stop loss like the 15 daily ema if you’re going to long Bitcoin.

10:35 am. Litecoin is making a wedge.
Litecoin is not even close to breaking out. Momentum in this crypto is being washed out. Wait for the breakout before buying.

6 am. Bitcoin is in a sideways consolidation. Do not buy yet.
After making a massive rally in late-2017, Bitcoin is making a big consolidation. Don’t buy Bitcoin unless it breaksout above $20k. In the mean time, neither bulls nor bears have an edge.

6 am: Ethereum is breaking out.
Ethereum is breaking out after consolidating sideways for a few weeks.

Using the Crypto strategy, traders should be long Ethereum right now with a stop loss at the 20 ema. 20ema is currently at $745. This is a very wide stop loss, so shrink your position size to manage risk.
6 am: Bitcoin Cash is making a triangle pattern (consolidation).
Don’t buy Bitcoin Cash right now. It’s making a consolidation, and this consolidation has almost come to its end. If…

  1. The market breaks out on the downside, avoid Bitcoin Cash.
  2. The market breaks out on the upside, buy Bitcoin Cash with a moving stop loss.


6 am: Ripple continues to soar.
Ripple has soared nonstop since mid-December. Traders who are long this crypto should hold their position and get out if Ripple falls below its 20 ema.

Sample portfolio

I don’t trade crypto. But here are the trades that the Crypto Trend Following strategy would put on.

  1. Long Ethereum since $929
  2. Long Ripple since $3.07

6 comments add yours

      • Should I wait for a dip on ripple? Do you foresee a correction there as well?

        • Personally, I wouldn’t touch cryptocurrencies. So I can’t make any recommendations Ahmad. I started this series because a lot of my friends and some readers have been asking about crypto.

  1. Question: If Crypto is a bubble and you know that there is at least one last leg up, why are you not trading Crypto and only stocks?

    • Because my UPRO strategy yields a high enough return already. I don’t need to diversify.

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