December 4, 2018: member-only market studies


Here are the member-only market studies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Yield curve

In today’s free market studies we looked at what happens next to the S&P 500 when various yield curves invert.
Here’s what the S&P 500 did next after the first 5 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

Here’s what the Dow did next after the first 5 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

Here’s what the NASDAQ did next after the first 5 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

Here’s what the S&P did next after the first 10 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

Here’s what the Dow did next after the first 10 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

Here’s what the NASDAQ did next after the first 10 year – 2 year inversion in each economic expansion.

VIX is subdued

In today’s free market studies we looked at what happens next to the S&P 500 when VIX is subdued while the stock market tanks.

Here’s what VIX itself does next.

XLU

In today’s free market studies we looked at what happens next to the S&P 500 when XLU significantly outperforms.

Here’s what XLU does next.