Forex & commodities on April 12, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
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Thoughts

  1. Neither short term bulls nor bears have an edge here with the U.S. dollar.
  2. Oil has broken out from its resistance. A false breakout?
  3. Gold and silver’s price action vs. its safety haven theme is bearish.

1 am: Neither short term bulls nor bears have an edge here with the U.S. dollar.
The U.S. dollar has failed to support itself on its 50 daily moving average. It is currently swinging sideways in a range right now, and it’s in the middle of this range. Neither short term bulls nor bears have an edge here.

1 am: Oil has broken out from its resistance.
Contrary to what I had expected, oil has broken above its resistance on Trump’s Syria tweets. Chasing the breakout here is dangerous. News-driven breakouts like this frequently give back their gains in a few days.

Oil’s correlation with the USD suggests that this isn’t a real breakout. Oil has an inverse correlation with the USD right now, which is still stuck in a narrow range. I don’t expect oil to truly breakout unless the USD breaks down from this range.

1 am: Gold and silver’s price action vs. its safety haven theme is bearish.
Gold and silver surged just like oil on Trump’s Syria threats. But unlike oil, gold and silver could not breakout from their respective resistances.


This is bearish price action. Gold and silver are constantly trying to use a “safety haven” theme to breakout, but they are constantly failing. This supports the case for a medium term gold and silver correction.
Read Forex & commodities on April 11, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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