Forex & commodities on April 13, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. Neither bulls nor bears have a medium term edge with the U.S. dollar right now.
  2. Gold and silver’s price action is bearish. Failing after 1 day safety-haven spikes.
  3. Oil is finding support on its previous resistance.

1 am: Neither bulls nor bears have a medium term edge with the U.S. dollar right now.
The USD’s medium term outlook is very confusing right now. There are equally valid bullish reasons and bearish reasons. We can see this with correlations as well.
Oil and the USD have an inverse correlation right now. Oil just broke out from resistance, which is a bullish factor for oil and a bearish factor for the USD.

Gold and the USD have an inverse correlation right now. Gold’s price action is bearish, which makes it a bearish factor for the USD.

Medium term traders should just stay away from the USD right now since the market’s medium term outlook is unclear. The only traders who are making money from the USD right now are short term contrarian traders.
1 am: Gold and silver’s price action is bearish. Failing after 1 day safety-haven spikes.
Gold and silver are constantly trying to breakout from their resistances on safety-haven news. They are failing every single time. Gold and silver spike 1 day on safetey haven news (e.g. tariff news), and then come back down the next day. Gold and silver can’t even sustain a multi-day bounce on safety-haven news.


Gold and silver are stuck within a narrow range right now. This is a medium term bearish factor for precious metals.
1 am: Oil is finding support on its previous resistance.
Oil broke out above its resistance 3 days ago. Yesterday I asked “is this a false breakout”? So far it isn’t. Oil is turning its previous resistance into support.

If oil doesn’t break below this new support, then it’s next target is $70. Remember, $70 is the all-important target because it’s what Saudi Arabia needs to breakeven on its oil production. Saudi Arabia wants to IPO Saudi Aramco in the second half of this year, so they need to push oil prices upwards.
Read Forex & commodities on April 12, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

Leave a Comment