Forex & commodities on April 17, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar Index could make a bounce to its trendline resistance at 90.
  2. Gold and silver don’t have the chance to go up on a safety haven theme anymore.
  3. Oil’s outlook is undecisive. Depends on whether oil made a false breakout.

1 am: the U.S. Dollar Index could make a bounce to its trendline resistance at 90.
The U.S. Dollar has been swinging sideways for months, even though it is in a bear market. What is the USD waiting for?
I think it’s waiting to reconnect with its trendline resistance before continuing to go down in its bear market. See the chart below.

If the USD Index reconnects with its trendline resistance, it means that the USD Index will bounce to 90.
1 am: Gold and silver’s safety haven theme is gone.
Gold and silver didn’t go up with oil on the Syrian missile strike news. It missed its chance to breakout on “safety haven” news. Now that the Syrian missile strike is over, oil is coming back down, which puts further bearish pressure on precious metals. The “safety haven” theme is gone. This is a short-medium term bearish factor for gold and silver.


1 am: Oil’s outlook is undecisive. Depends on whether oil made a false breakout.
Oil broke out from its multi-month resistance on Syrian missile strike news. It has since come back down since this news is over. You should ignore what the market does on news and focus on what it does when there is no news.
Now comes the real test. Was this a real breakout and will oil turn its previous resistance into support? Or will this turn out to be a fake breakout and oil will fall back below its previous resistance? Let’s see over the next few days.

Read Forex & commodities on April 16, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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