Forex & commodities on April 20, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. U.S. Dollar is finding support on its 200 monthly moving average.
  2. Gold and silver are still capped by their resistance trendlines.
  3. Oil brokeout from its 200 monthly moving average. Next big resistance at $75-$80

1 am: USD is finding support on its 200 daily moving average.
The U.S. Dollar is still in a bear market because its price action is rather weak. It is trying to make a bounce right now because:

  1. It is on its 200 monthly moving average support.
  2. Commercial hedgers (smart money) are extremely long the USD.

However, the U.S. Dollar Index can barely bounce despite these 2 bullish factors. This is a sign of weak price action and supports the long term bearish case for the U.S. Dollar.

1 am: Gold and silver are still capped by their resistance trendlines.
Some people point to the COT Reports for a medium term bullish case on precious metals (smart money is very bullish on silver). However, the price action shows otherwise. Gold and silver are still capped at their resistance trendlines despite silver’s spike a few days ago.


We would turn medium term bullish on precious metals if gold and silver breakout from their resistance trendlines.
1 am: Oil brokeout from its 200 monthly moving average. Next big resistance at $75-$80
Oil’s 200 monthly moving average is a very good support/resistance line. Oil has finally broken above this resistance after being capped under it for 3 months.

WTI oil’s next big resistance trendline is at $75-$80, depending on how long it takes for oil to reach this resistance.
Read Forex & commodities on April 19, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

3 comments add yours

  1. Hi Troy , It is still not very clear for me who is the smart money . From somewhere I read , the smart money is the “speculative” , i.e hedge fund etc ?

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