Forex & commodities on April 4, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar will peak when the stock market bottoms.
  2. Gold and silver’s price action is bearish. Can’t break resistance on safety haven theme.
  3. Oil will bottom with the U.S. stock market.

8 am: the USD will peak when the stock market bottoms.
The USD Index was going down nonstop until late-January 2018 when the U.S. stock market started to fall. The USD has managed to make a bear market consolidation because the U.S. stock market is making a correction.
This also means that the USD Index should break down when the S&P 500’s correction is over.
I think the S&P 500 will make a marginal new low before its correction is over. This means that the USD still has some room to bounce in the short term before it resumes its bear market.
The USD Index is holding its 50 daily moving average support.

8 am: Gold and silver’s price action is bearish. Can’t break resistance on safety haven theme.
Gold and silver are once again trying to go up because the U.S. stock market is going down (a “safety haven” theme).
But gold and silver are weak: they can’t even break above resistance despite multiple attempts. This is a short-medium term bearish sign for precious metals.


8 am: Oil will bottom with the U.S. stock market.
Oil is going down with the U.S. stock market right now after facing prior resistance.

I think the S&P 500 will make a marginal new low vs its February 9 lows. Based on this correlation, this means that oil will fall a little more before bottoming.
Read Forex & commodities on April 3, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

Leave a Comment