Forex & commodities on April 5, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. NAFTA renegotiation talks are on the right track. A medium term bearish factor for the USD.
  2. Gold and silver could breakdown once tariff threats die down.

1 am: NAFTA renegotiation talks are on the right track. A medium term bearish factor for the USD.
Neither bulls nor bears have an edge right now with the USD stuck in a range, but here’s a bearish factor for the USD.
Trump is pushing for a tentative NAFTA renegotiation agreement as early as next week. The USD’s entire consolidation since February has been supported by a rising USDCAD on NAFTA fears.

Now that the NAFTA renegotation fears are dying down, I expect this to be a medium term bearish factor for the USD. A factor that was propping up the USD is gone.
1 am: Gold and silver could breakdown once tariff threats die down.
Gold and silver are stuck in very narrow ranges right now. They are continuously trying (and failing) to bounce on tariff-related news.
Trump is pushing for a NAFTA deal as early as next week. Tariff threats will likely die down over the next few weeks, which means that this safety haven theme will be gone from the precious metals markets. I think gold and silver will breakdown from their support levels once this safety haven theme is removed.


Read Forex & commodities on April 4, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

4 comments add yours

  1. Hi Troy,
    If gold and silver break down, is it the buying opportunity?
    Thanks.
    Alex

    • Hi Alex,
      I don’t trade gold and silver for the medium term, so I can’t say. I only have a small long term position in silver.

  2. HI troy,
    You saying that USD is bearish medium term with NAFTA deal next week, and Gold and silver will also breakdown with tariff threat die down, so that means gold and silver still stuck in range ?
    thanks.

    • Hi Dave,
      Sorry for the confusion. The USD and gold/silver are really hard to understand right now (I’m having trouble too) because the factors aren’t clear. The bullish factors are offsetting the bearish factors.
      I think we’ll be range bound for now, but the USD’s long term is still bearish.

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