Forex & commodities on February 26, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The “smart money” is still very bearish on oil despite crude oil’s recent correction.
  2. The “smart money” is slightly bearish on gold and silver.
  3. The “smart money” is still very bullish on the U.S. Dollar.

3 am: The “smart money” is still very bearish on oil despite crude oil’s recent correction.
Crude made a correction recently. Commercial hedgers (smart money) are still very bearish on oil. They are expecting a larger correction.

3 am: The “smart money” is slightly bearish on gold and silver.
Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on precious metals right now. You can ignore this COT positioning for gold and silver right now. Only extremes are useful in the COT report.
Here are commercial hedgers on gold. They’re slightly bearish. Red line is “hedger net as a % of open interest”.

Here are commercial hedgers on silver. They are neutral-bullish!

3 am: The “smart money” is still very bullish on the U.S. Dollar.
Commercial hedgers (smart money) are still very bullish on the U.S. Dollar Index, according to the latest COT report. See the following red line (Dollar hedger net as a % of open interest).

Likewise, commercial hedgers are still very bearish on EURUSD. See below.

Yen hedgers are slightly bullish (slightly bearish on USDJPY). See below.

Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on the Canadian dollar (bullish on USDCAD). See below.

Commercial hedgers are still bearish on the British Pound (bearish on GBPUSD). See below.

Read Forex & commodities on February 23, 2018.

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver will break above their tight range in the first half of 2018.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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