Forex & commodities on February 28, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. Expect a big rally in gold and silver after this short term pullback.
  2. A bigger USD bounce = gold and silver will reconnect with their support trendlines.
  3. The U.S. Dollar Index is approaching resistance.

3 am: expect a big rally in precious metals after this short term pullback.
The odds of a short term pullback in gold and silver are >50%. However, the medium-long term outlook for precious metals is decisively bullish.
The gold:silver ratio continues to bump up against 80. A ratio of 80 has matched the bottom before many gold and silver rallies.

3 am: A bigger USD bounce = gold and silver will reconnect with their support trendlines.
Gold and silver’s price action continues to be bearish. Silver is consistently weaker than gold. Coupled with the possibility of a larger-than-expected USD bounce, gold and silver will probably reconnect with their support trendlines.
Here’s silver.

Here’s gold.

3 am: the U.S. Dollar is approaching resistance.
The U.S. Dollar Index faces a lot of resistances from 90.5 (where it is today) to 91:

  1. Prior high in early February 2018
  2. 50 daily moving average.
  3. Previous support (now resistance) from September 2017.


I expect the USD to bounce to 92 at most. That is the U.S. Dollar’s downwards sloping trendline. A reconnect with this bearish trendline is possible.

Read Forex & commodities on February 27, 2018.

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver will break above their tight range in the first half of 2018.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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