Forex & commodities on March 13, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar Index is being continuously guided down by its 50sma
  2. Commercial hedgers are bearish on the Euro, slightly bullish on the Yen, bearish on the Pound, neutral towards the Australian dollar, and slightly bearish on the Canadian dollar.
  3. Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on gold and bullish on silver right now.

6 am: the USD Index is being continuously guided down by its 50sma.
The U.S. Dollar Index continues to face resistance at its 50sma. It is at a decision making point. The USD is being wedged into a narrower and narrower range. It will either break above its 50sma ( = much bigger USD bounce) or it will break down below its support.

3 am: Commercial hedgers are bearish on the Euro, slightly bullish on the Yen, bearish on the Pound, neutral towards the Australian dollar, and slightly bearish on the Canadian dollar.
Commercial hedgers (“smart money”) are still heavily bearish on the Euro in the latest COT report.

Commercial hedgers are slightly bullish on the Yen (slightly bearish on USDJPY).

Commercial hedgers are still bearish on the British Pound (bearish on GBPUSD).

Commercial hedgers are neutral towards the Australian Dollar.

Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on the Canadian dollar (slightly bullish on USDCAD).

3 am: Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on gold
Commercial hedgers are slightly bearish on gold right now.

Interestingly enough, commercial hedgers are bullish on silver.

This is a rare situation because gold and silver tend to move in the same direction.

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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