Forex & commodities on March 16, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. U.S. Dollar is starting to break out from its 50 sma resistance.
  2. Silver is capped at its 200 weekly sma. Bearish for precious metals.

3 am: U.S. Dollar is starting to break out from its 50 sma resistance.
The U.S. Dollar Index’s 50sma has been solid resistance throughout this entire USD bear market. Any breakout above this resistance represented a big bear market rally.
The USD Index is starting to break out from this 50sma resistance. If the USD does not turn this into a false breakout over the next few days, then we can expect a bigger USD bear market rally.

3 am: Silver is capped at its 200 weekly sma. Bearish for precious metals.
Silver is continuously capped by its 200 weekly sma resistance. Its inability to breakout from this resistance is worrisome.

There is an inverse correlation between silver and the U.S. Dollar. A bigger USD rally + silver capped at its 200 weekly sma resistance = a potential medium term correction in gold and silver.

Read Forex & commodities on March 13, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

2 comments add yours

  1. Dear Troy, based on the recent USD performance and silver resistance, are you reconsidering your position that Silver is set for a surge this year?

    • Yes, I am a little concerned that this is taking so long. I’m going to cap my position size at 10%. This is like my Bitcoin play haha. If silver and gold surge over the next few years because of rising inflation, then this position will have a meaningful impact on my portfolio’s P&L. If the trade doesn’t work out, then no sweat. A small loss to the overall portfolio (just a few %).

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