Forex & commodities on March 20, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. Gold and silver are on the verge of breaking down.
  2. The U.S. Dollar is still being guided down by its 50 daily moving average. Breakout or breakdown in next few weeks.
  3. Money Flow is starting to leave Europe. A medium term bearish factor for EURUSD

3 pm: Gold and silver are on the verge of breaking down.
Silver is constantly retesting its support level of $16.15. It’s on the verge of a breakdown. Silver is continuously suppressed by its 200 weekly sma moving average.

Silver’s next big support level is at $15.65

Gold is also on the verge of breaking down below its $1310 support level.

3 am: the U.S. Dollar is still being guided down by its 50 daily moving average. Breakout or breakdown in next few weeks.
The U.S. Dollar Index made a false breakout above its 50 daily sma. It is still firmly being guided down by this resistance.
The U.S. Dollar Index is swinging within a narrower and narrower range (50sma resistance on top, horizontal support on the bottom). Expect a big breakout or breakdown within the next few weeks.

3 am: Money Flow is starting to leave Europe. A medium term bearish factor for EURUSD
Money flowed from the U.S. to Europe in 2016 and 2017 because investors wanted to take advantage of:

  1. Cheaper European stock market valuations, and
  2. The post-slowdown surge in Europe’s economy. (The initial surge after an economic slowdown is always fierce.)

This helped drive EURUSD higher and the U.S. dollar index lower (EURUSD accounts for more than 50% of the USD Index).
Money is now starting to flow out of European equities. Europe’s economic recovery isn’t as strong as investors had hoped.

This is a medium term bearish factor for the EURUSD. It supports a EURUSD correction and bigger U.S. Dollar rally.
Read Forex & commodities on March 19, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

2 comments add yours

  1. Hi Troy,
    With SLV coming down to 2 year trend line support do you feel this would be a good time to take a starter position given where we are at? If it breaks out then could add more…
    Regards,
    Rich

    • Yes, I think this would be a good price to start averaging in if you’re long SLV. Not a good idea if you’re long USLV because USLV’s erosion is a big problem.

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