Forex & commodities on March 22, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar is still being guided down by its 50sma.
  2. Oil is making higher highs and higher lows. Bullish.
  3. Gold and silver’s medium term direction depends on the U.S. Dollar.

3 am: the USD is still being guided down by its 50sma.
The U.S. Dollar Index is swinging in a narrower and narrower range. It is slowly being guided down by its 50 daily moving average.
Neither bulls nor bears have an edge here. Wait for a breakout above the 50sma resistance or a breakdown below 88 support.

3 am: oil is making higher highs and higher lows. Bullish.
I said yesterday that oil has broken out from its consolidation pattern. Oil has now become even more bullish. It is making higher highs and higher lows (new high vs. the February 26 high).

I think oil has started a new rally. Saudi Arabia needs oil to be above $70 to go ahead with their Saudi Aramco IPO in the second half of 2018.
3 am: Gold and silver’s medium term direction depends on the U.S. Dollar.
Gold and silver are swinging in a narrow range, just like the U.S. Dollar Index. There is a moderately inverse correlation between gold/silver and the U.S. Dollar Index right now.


Neither bulls nor bears have a medium term advantage in the precious metals market right now.

  1. If the USD breaks out on the upside = bearish for gold and silver.
  2. If the USD breaks down on the downside = bullish for gold and silver.

Read Forex & commodities on March 21, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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