Forex & commodities on March 27, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar is being guided down by its 50sma. At critical support.
  2. Bullish price action for interest rates (Treasury yields).
  3. April is seasonally bullish for oil.

1 am: The U.S. Dollar is being guided down by its 50sma. At critical support.
The U.S. Dollar Index just can’t seem to break above its 50sma. It is being guided down by this 50sma resistance. The USD is now at a critical support. If this support level is broken, then we can expect the U.S. Dollar to go a lot lower.

1 am: Bullish price action for interest rates (Treasury yields).
The S&P 500 and 10 year Treasury yield have had a positive correlation since September 2017. This is because both markets are being driven in the long term by an improving U.S. economy.
But while the S&P 500 fell from late-January 2018 to present, the 10 year Treasury yield has been completely flat. This is medium term bullish price action for the 10 year yield and interest rates.

1 am. April is seasonally bullish for oil.
March and April are the 2 most seasonally bullish months for crude oil. This pattern has played out so far: oil has gone up this March.

Keep in mind that “seasonality” is an AVERAGE of the market’s performance during that month. This doesn’t mean that oil will definitely go up this April.
Read Forex & commodities on March 26, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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