Forex & commodities on March 30, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The U.S. Dollar Index still has not decisively broken out above its 50sma
  2. Gold and silver have an inverse relationship with the USD. Neither bulls nor bears have an edge here.
  3. Oil is hovering near resistance. Wait for the breakout.

1 am: The U.S. Dollar Index still has not decisively broken out above its 50sma.
The U.S. Dollar is making lower highs. It’s being guided down by its 50sma, but still cannot break support. The Index is trading in a narrower and narrower range. Neither bulls nor bears have an edge here. Wait for a breakout or breakdown.

1 am: Gold and silver have an inverse relationship with the USD. Neither bulls nor bears have an edge here.
Gold and silver have a strong inverse correlation with the USD. Here’s gold and the USD’s inverse correlation.

Here’s silver and the USD’s inverse correlation.

The USD is stuck in a very narrow range right now. Neither bulls nor bears have an edge here. Since there is a strong inverse correlation between the USD and gold, neither bulls nor bears have an edge in the precious metals markets either.
1 am: Oil is hovering near resistance 200 monthly moving average. Wait for the breakout.
Oil is stuck under its January 2018 resistance. Bullish trend followers should wait for oil to breakout above this level before going long.

This is also oil’s 200 monthly moving average resistance. This moving average has been highly useful support and resistance before.

Read Forex & commodities on March 29, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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