Forex & commodities on May 1, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The USD Index is slowly moving towards its next target at 92.4
  2. Gold and silver are on the verge of making a medium term breakdown.
  3. A gold and silver breakdown would be a short term bearish factor for oil.

1 am: the USD Index is slowly moving towards its next target at 92.4
As stated last Friday, the USD Index’s next target after breaking out is 92.4. The USD is slowly getting to this resistance level right now. But the big resistance (if the USD Index gets here) is at 94.

1 am: Gold and silver are on the verge of making a medium term breakdown.
Gold and silver have an inverse correlation with the USD right now. And with the USD breaking out, gold and silver are on the verge of breaking down from their consolidation ranges over the past few months.
If the USD pushes to its 92.4 target, gold and silver will probably break down.


1 am: A gold and silver breakdown would be a short term bearish factor for oil.
A lot of traders are going short oil here under the $70 resistance level. More importantly, the risk of a gold and silver breakdown = a short term bearish factor for oil. Oil, gold, and silver all belong in the same commodities family.
Expect a pullback in oil if gold and silver breakdown.

Read Forex & commodities on April 30, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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