Forex & commodities on May 4, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.

Thoughts

  1. The USD has recently broken out above its 200sma. A short-medium bullish term sign for the U.S. Dollar.
  2. Correlation between gold and USD is EXTREMELY inverse. Short-medium term bearish for gold and silver.

1 am: The USD has recently broken out above its 200sma. A short-medium term sign for the U.S. Dollar.
The USD Index broke above its 200 daily moving average a few days ago for the first time since May 2017 (almost 1 year).

This is a short-medium term bullish sign for the USD Index. Historically: when the USD breaks above its 200sma for the first time in a long time, it usually goes up over the next 2-4 weeks (75-80% probability). My target for the USD is 94.
1 am: Correlation between gold and USD is EXTREMELY inverse. Short-medium term bearish for gold and silver.
The correlation between gold and the USD is extremely inverse right now. The 2 markets are almost moving step-for-step in the opposite directions.

Gold and silver are making a weak attempt to defend their support levels. With the USD Index on the verge of a breakout, the breakdown target for gold is $1240 and for silver is $15.6
Read Forex & commodities on May 3, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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