Forex & commodities on May 4, 2018: outlook
Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex and commodities. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on forex and commodities.
Thoughts
- The USD has recently broken out above its 200sma. A short-medium bullish term sign for the U.S. Dollar.
- Correlation between gold and USD is EXTREMELY inverse. Short-medium term bearish for gold and silver.
1 am: The USD has recently broken out above its 200sma. A short-medium term sign for the U.S. Dollar.
The USD Index broke above its 200 daily moving average a few days ago for the first time since May 2017 (almost 1 year).
This is a short-medium term bullish sign for the USD Index. Historically: when the USD breaks above its 200sma for the first time in a long time, it usually goes up over the next 2-4 weeks (75-80% probability). My target for the USD is 94.
1 am: Correlation between gold and USD is EXTREMELY inverse. Short-medium term bearish for gold and silver.
The correlation between gold and the USD is extremely inverse right now. The 2 markets are almost moving step-for-step in the opposite directions.
Gold and silver are making a weak attempt to defend their support levels. With the USD Index on the verge of a breakout, the breakdown target for gold is $1240 and for silver is $15.6
Read Forex & commodities on May 3, 2018: outlook
Bottom line
I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts/outlook on other markets.
- Gold and silver are in bull markets.
- I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
- The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.