Be careful about Comey's testimony next Thursday


We never actually read Trump’s “you’re fired” letter to Comey. We just read it today, and it is chilling.

Dear Director Comey:

I have received the attached letters from the Attorney General and Deputy Attorney General of the United States recommending your dismissal as the Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation. I have accepted their recommendation and you are hereby terminated and removed from office, effective immediately.

While I greatly appreciate you informing me, on three separate occasions, that I am not under investigation, I nevertheless concur with the judgment of the Department of Justice that you are not able to effectively lead the Bureau.

It is essential that we find new leadership for the FBI that restores public trust and confidence in its vital law enforcement mission.

I wish you the best of luck in your future endeavors.

Donald J. Trump

We have friends who work in the FBI. They said that it’s not normal procedure for an FBI director to voluntarily tell someone that he is/isn’t under investigtation.
In other words, Trump must have ASKED Comey whether the FBI was investigating Trump or not. Comey passively replied.
It is not standard procedure for the FBI to reply with a clear “yes” or “no”. Instead, Comey probably replied with a vague politico-speak answer that Trump misinterpreted as “the FBI isn’t investigating you”.
If Trump personally was not involved with Russia, why would he need to ask Comey “is the FBI investigating me?” That’s illogical. Someone who’s clean has no reason to ask this question.
We’ve been saying this all along: Trump cannot be impeached for trying to end the Flynn investigation unless by doing so, he was trying to cover up his own wrongdoing.
Right now it seems increasingly likely that Trump dealt with some gray areas at the very least. Perhaps these gray areas aren’t entirely related to the election. Perhaps these gray areas are related to Trump’s business dealings with Russia.
Either way, we can expect a media frenzy and broadening of the Trump-Russia investigation if Comey reveals anything interesting next Thursday (June 8).
Unlike the mainstream media, we have no bias against Trump. We’re simply reporting the facts (not hearsay), and thinking about the facts logically.

Bottom line

We are not in the business of predicting political outcomes. Perhaps Trump will ultimately be cleared. There’s a small chance that he’ll be impeached.
We’re glad that we’re sitting on 100% cash right now. This is one of the longest small rallies of all time. Any number of random reasons can push the S&P down into a small 6%+ correction.
If Comey does reveal some juicy details next Thursday, we think there’s a >50% chance that the S&P will start to fall into “small correction” territory on this trigger. This is just a random guess.

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