November 12, 2018: member-only market studies

Here are the member-only market studies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Oil

As I mentioned in today’s free market studies, the S&P might close below its lower Bollinger Band for 3 consecutive weeks.
Will oil’s decline lead to “contagion” for the U.S. stock market?
Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 when oil falls below its lower Bollinger Band for 3 consecutive weeks.

Historically, this did not have a bearish impact on the stock market.

Dow:NASDAQ

As I mentioned in today’s free market studies, the Dow:NASDAQ ratio has risen significantly, which means that tech will probably start to outperform soon.
Is this automatically a bullish sign for the S&P 500?
Here’s what happens next to the S&P when the Dow:NASDAQ ratio is more than 5% above its 200 dma.

As you can see, the S&P’s forward returns are no better than random.
This study merely implies that tech will outperform (e.g. if the stock market keeps going down, tech will go down less than large caps).

NAMO

As I mentioned in today’s free market studies, NAMO has made a strong downwards reversal.
Here’s what the NASDAQ did next when NAMO went from above 60 to below 0 in less than 1 week.

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