November 13, 2018: member-only market studies

Here are the member-only market studies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Oil

In today’s free market studies we looked at what the S&P 500 does next when oil crashes more than -6% to a 1 year low.

Here’s what the Russell 2000 does next. Interestingly enough, Russell tends to underperform the S&P.

Here’s what the NASDAQ does next

Here’s what the Dow does next

It’s really interesting how Russell is weaker than the other indices. Perhaps this is because Russell has more energy company components in it?
This chart demonstrates the Russell:S&P ratio vs oil.
Notice how this ratio tends to go up (Russell outperforms) when oil goes up, and this ratio tends to go down (Russell underperforms) when oil goes down.

Oil

In today’s free market studies we looked at what the S&P 500 does next when the Put/Call ratio’s 50 day moving average rises above 1.033.

Here’s what the Russell tends to do next

Here’s what the Dow tends to do next

Here’s what the NASDAQ tends to do next

NYMO

In today’s free market studies we looked at what the S&P 500 does next when NYMO rises above 70 and falls below 10 in less than 2 weeks.

Here’s what the Russell tends to do next

Here’s what the NASDAQ tends to do next

Here’s what the Dow tends to do next