November 3, 2018: member-only market studies


Here are the member-only market studies for stocks, commodities, and currencies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Russell ended its loss streak

In today’s free market studies we looked at what happens to the Russell 2000 when it breaks a 6 week loss streak.

Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically) when the Russell breaks a 6 week loss streak.

As you can see, the S&P’s forward returns are more consistently bullish.

NASDAQ’s need for a retest

The NASDAQ broke a 4 week loss streak.

Here’s what happens next to the NASDAQ when it breaks a 4 week loss streak while above its 100 weekly moving average

As you can see, the NASDAQ tends to experience some losses over the next 2 weeks.

XLY:XLP

In today’s free market studies we looked at what why XLY:XLP is sending a long term bearish sign for the U.S. stock market right now, and why we think this is inaccurate.
Here’s another way to look at XLY:XLP
The XLY:XLP ratio’s 14 day RSI fell below 26 in mid-October.
When this happens (historically), the the S&P tends to bounce in the next 1 month.

*Keep in mind that the S&P is now lower than where it was in mid-October.

2 comments add yours

  1. Hi Troy, You have not done a study on GOLD recently.
    The patterns seem to suggest that gold should move up slightly above its 200 mas but still with a bear market. May even surprise many how strong it will move. What does your studies say.
    RAY

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