November 7, 2018: member-only market studies


Here are the member-only market studies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Oil

Oil has tanked recently. It is now more than -10% below its 50 day moving average.

Is mean-reversion about to start? Will oil bounce?
Here’s what happened next to WTI oil (historically) when oil falls more than -10% below its 50 dma (first time in 3 months)

As you can see, this is bearish for oil over the next 3 months.
What about XLE? Is this bearish for XLE too?
*XLE = energy sector ETF

No.
This is more bearish for oil than XLE. XLE doesn’t always follow oil. XLE is tugged by oil and the U.S. stock market, which often move in different directions.

NYMO

As I mentioned in today’s free market study, NYMO has bounced back really quickly. When this happens, the S&P tends to rally over the next 9 months.

Here’s what the Dow tends to do

Here’s what the Russell 2000 tends to do.

Our recent member-only studies have suggested that small caps Russell will underperform large cap indices. The Russell’s forward returns aren’t as consistently bullish as that of the S&P’s and Dow’s.
This is what the NASDAQ tends to do.

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