November 8, 2018: member-only market studies


*Special update: now that the S&P has climbed back above its 200 day moving average, I will implement the safer way to use the Medium-Long Term Model as I mentioned last weekend.
Here are the member-only market studies.
Let’s analyze the stock market’s price action by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on any given day, week, or month.

*Probability ≠ certainty.

Oil

We looked at oil in yesterday’s member-only studies and concluded that oil’s medium term outlook is bearish.
Let’s look at oil again today. WTI oil is now down 8 days in a row.
Historically, this often leads to a short term bounce over the next 1-2 weeks, after which forward returns are mixed.

Gap up

As I mentioned in today’s free market study, the S&P has gapped up significantly. When this happens, the S&P tends to rally over the next 6-9 months.

Here’s what the Dow tends to do.

VIX roundtrip

As I mentioned in today’s free market study, VIX has done a roundtrip. When this happens, the S&P 500’s returns over the next 1 month are slightly bullish.

Breadth reversal

As I mentioned in today’s free market study, the S&P 500’s breadth has rapidly recovered. Such rapid recoveries are pretty bullish for the S&P, especially 2 months later.

Here’s what the Russell 2000 tends to do next.

Here’s what the Dow tends to do next.

Here’s what the NASDAQ tends to do next.

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