Forex, commodities, & cryptocurrencies: June 10, 2018 outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex, commodities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on the markets.

Thoughts

  1. The Euro will probably fall a little more, and the USD will probably rise a little more.
  2. Silver is a much better bullish trade than gold. Silver’s price action is more bullish.
  3. Bitcoin will probably make a big breakdown. Bitcoin’s rallies are getting weaker and weaker.

1 am: The Euro will probably fall a little more, and the USD will probably rise a little more.
The Euro’s recent bounce is not surprising – it comes on the backs of a 6 week consecutive decline in the Euro and rally in the USD.

Remember this study from before: when the Euro falls 6 weeks in a row, it usually goes lower 2 months later. Weakness begets more weakness.

I think a Euro target of $1.14 is the most likely scenario. The Euro has a lot of prior resistances here (now turned support). This means that the USD will probably rally a little more before topping.

1 am: Silver is a much better bullish trade than gold. Silver’s price action is more bullish.
Gold and silver have an inverse correlation with the USD Index. The USD’s rally from April-May 2018 forced gold downwards into a lower range.

However, the USD’s rally has failed to push silver into a lower range. Silver has not broken below its multi-month range. This means that silver’s price action is more bullish than that of gold’s.

If the USD rallies a little more before topping, I expect silver to revisit the bottom of its range before making a medium term bottom.
1 am: Bitcoin will probably make a big breakdown. Bitcoin’s rallies are getting weaker and weaker.
Bitcoin doesn’t have fundamentals. It’s mostly a bunch of speculators/traders trading this market. That’s why technical analysis works in cryptocurrencies. Technical analysis works well in markets where the fundamentals aren’t very strong.
Bitcoin is trying to make a triple bottom on the $7000-$6500 level. The problem is that each of Bitcoin’s bounces are getting weaker and weaker.

This is a medium term bearish sign for Bitcoin, which suggests that the next big move will be to break below this triple bottom level. Bitcoin is already starting to roll over.

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