Other markets on May 23, 2018: outlook


Here are my discretionary thoughts on forex, commodities, bonds, and cryptocurrencies. I only trade the stock market.
Go to the homepage for my latest thoughts on the markets.

Thoughts

  1. USD continues to flirt with 94-95 resistance zone.
  2. Bitcoin has support trendlines from $7300 to $6500
  3. WTI oil will have a hard time pushing past $80 even if Venezuela’s production continues to fall.

4 am: USD continues to flirt with 94-95 resistance zone.
The USD Index continues to flirt with its 94-95 resistance zone. Nothing new here from yesterday’s market outlook. The USD’s risk:reward becomes increasingly bearish as it pushes into this resistance zone.

4 am: Bitcoin has support trendlines from $7300 to $6500
Bitcoin has a rising support trendline at $7300. It also has a potential triple bottom support at $6500.

Bitcoin will go much lower if it fails to hold support at $6500.
4 am: WTI oil will have a hard time pushing past $80 even if Venezuela’s production continues to fall.
Venezuela’s collapsing oil production is playing a big role in oil’s rally.

Many analysts expect Venezuela’s oil production to fall another 500k barrels by the end of 2018. That’s why they think oil will reach $100 a barrel. But remember that U.S. shale is very profitable anywhere above $70. The higher oil prices go, the more supply the U.S. will bring online. Hence I don’t think oil will push past $80. $75-$80 is the resistance zone.
There are short term logistics constraints in the U.S. (e.g. insufficient pipeline capacity),  which is slowing down the U.S.’ ability to bring more oil to market. But these will be resolved the longer oil remains above $70.
Read Other markets on May 22, 2018: outlook

Bottom line

I only trade stocks. These are just my thoughts and outlook on other markets.

  1. Gold and silver are in bull markets.
  2. I’ve decided to buy some gold and silver as long term investments.
  3. The U.S. Dollar is in a bear market.

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