Simple trading strategy that generates 17.2% per year


Hi everyone! My goal here at Bull Markets is to show you that:

  1. You don’t have to be a genius to consistently beat the markets.
  2. Working smart (in the right direction) is more important than working hard. Many full-time traders can’t even really beat buy-and-hold.
  3. Using unbiased quantitative strategies is better than “guessing” whether the market will go up or down.

I want to show you a very simple strategy that beats buy and hold. This model literally has 4 lines.

  1. Buying and holding the S&P 500 has generated an average of 8.1% per year over the past 30 years.
  2. This strategy has generated an average of 17.2% per year over the past 30 years.
  3. More importantly, this strategy helps you avoid gut-wrenching losses in bear markets like 2008.

This strategy is FREE: I just want to show you that beating the markets doesn’t take a PhD or 180 IQ.
This strategy is available to everyone who subscribes to our email newsletter:

  1. If you are subscribed already, please check your email at the end of today. The strategy will be in our daily newsletter.
  2. If you aren’t subscribed yet, go to our homepage and please do so. You will be given immediate access to this strategy.

Cheers, and happy trading everyone!

16 comments add yours

  1. It’s the very first time I see a strategy with big knowledge in it. Amazing! and I’d spend 12 hours to study it. Draw lot’s of excel chart to figure what’s the meaning behind Troy’s 4 line. But I still can’t get it, and it’s 3.30 am in taiwan, too tired need some sleep.
    The only thing I find out : Troy’s Line 2 (1 year change in spread) is trying to predict the spread’s direction , go up or go down.
    Here is my question: Why (1 year change in spread) have a strong power to predict?
    I’m not sure if it’s OK to ask question about the strategy, though I try to hind import part of the strategy to ask this question. If it’s not OK to ask, please delete my comment.
    Thank you for sharing something so meaningful.

    • Thank you again , Troy, for not reply. I finally got it.
      Difference between now and 1 year ago, whatever it’s yield spread or CPI or Manufacturers’ New Orders, they all have same one meaning of then: long term direction. That’s the reason (1 year change in spread) is such a strong index.
      Best Regards.

      • Sorry Nick, what did you mean by “not reply”? I don’t think I got the previous question.
        Regards,
        Troy

        • Don’t really know how to write in english correctly to present my thought. With all my respect, thank you for your strategy and reply.

    • The 1 year spread has such a strong power to predict because the yield curve tends to become inverted 6 months – 18 months before a bear market and recession begins.

  2. Hi Troy,
    Would you have any suggestions around how to automate data monitoring (eg. tools, where to pull the data) for quantitative strategies such as this?
    Thanks,
    Frank

  3. Troy, I don’t understand the 10-2 treasury strategy. As I look at the 1 year 10-2 treasury graph on FRED, it appears that the spread has fallen from 1.02 to .48% over the past 12 months (5/2/17 – 5/2/18). Do I start counting 5 consecutive days above .5% after the spread first dips below .5%? I appreciate the clarification. Thanks…………..Tony

    • Hi Tony,
      The spread is FALLING right now. This strategy says to sell when the spread RISES 0.5%
      The change in the spread has to be above +0.5% for 5 consecutive days before you sell.
      Regards,
      Troy

  4. Hi Troy
    Considering that you didn’t get in when the last entry point was signaled (2014-05-16) what to do as today? Or should wait until next change entry point? Did you use this strategy?

    • No Cris, I didn’t use this strategy. That being said, the yield curve is still falling right now. Stocks tend to go up when the yield curve is falling.
      Regards,
      Cris

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