Here are today’s quantitative market studies. Facts and data are more important than blind faith.
Amazon and Netflix have been leading the stock market higher. These 2 stocks have significantly outperformed the S&P 500 year-to-date.
Amazon is now up 7 days in a row. Historically, what happens next to Amazon?
Click here to download the data in Excel.
Amazon will probably close higher the next day (i.e. go up 8 days in a row). But this study is a short term bearish sign for for Amazon. See Amazon’s 2 week forward return.
NASDAQ is leading the S&P
Tech stocks and small caps are leading the stock market’s rally, while large cap slow-growth stocks (i.e. Dow) are underperforming the stock market’s rally. The NASDAQ is now less than 0.5% away from its all time high even though the S&P 500 is still more than 4% below its all time high.
Here’s what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically). We’ve excluded the overlapping cases over the past 3 months.
Click here to download data in Excel.
This is neither a bullish nor bearish sign for the stock market. This is why we don’t put too much emphasis on which sectors lead/lag for predicting the stock market’s future performance.