ISM manufacturing recently made a new high for this economic expansion cycle.
ISM manufacturing is a leading indicator for the U.S. economy and U.S. stock market. Historically, it trended downwards before an equities bear market or economic recession began.
Let’s assume a worst case scenario. Let’s assume that ISM manufacturing has peaked and will no longer make new highs for this economic expansion.
Historically, the stock market tends to go up over the next 1-2 years AFTER ISM manufacturing peaks, even if it faces some short term weakness over the next few months.
Overall, U.S. economic data continues to improve right now. This is a medium-long term bullish sign for the stock market. Since the U.S. stock market and U.S. economy move in the same direction in the medium-long term, leading economic indicators are also leading stock market indicators.
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