Study: longest rally in history without a 3%+ pullback


The U.S. stock market continues to set records. Not only is the current rally the longest rally in history without a 6%+ “small correction”, but this is also the longest streak in history without a 3%+ pullback.
 
Here are the 7 longest streaks in history without a 3%+ pullback.

  1. November 7 2016 – present: 305 days and counting
  2. January 26, 1995 – January 9, 1996: 241 days
  3. July 7, 1993 – February 23, 1994: 162 days
  4. November 26, 1963 – June 3, 1964: 131 days
  5. September 2, 1965 – February 23, 1966: 120 days
  6. December 17, 1964 – June 1, 1965: 114 days
  7. January 27, 1983 – June 27, 1983: 105 days

Let’s look at how each of these historical streaks ended.

January 26, 1995 – January 9, 1996: 241 days

This streak ended with a normal 4.3% pullback.

July 7, 1993 – February 23, 1994: 162 days

This streak ended with a 9.7% “small correction”.

November 26, 1963 – June 3, 1964: 131 days

This streak ended with a normal 4.8% pullback.

September 2, 1965 – February 23, 1966: 120 days

This streak ended with a 23.6% “significant correction”. This historical case doesn’t apply to today because the Medium-Long Term Model doesn’t foresee a significant correction right now.

December 17, 1964 – June 1, 1965: 114 days

This streak ended with a 10.9% “small correction”.

January 27, 1983 – June 27, 1983: 105 days

This streak ended with a 7.6% “small correction.

 

3 comments add yours

  1. Troy, your historical charts never come with rsi built into the charts so we can study price divergence. Are u unable to get rsi in historical charts

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