Study: what happens next when the stock market rallies in May

Sell in May and go away” states that the stock market is seasonally “weak” from May – September. As you can see from the chart below, the stock market’s average gain in May is approximately 0%.

May 2018 has been different. The S&P 500 rallied 2.16% in May 2018, which is significantly above 0%.

How has the stock market performed (historically) when it bucked the “sell in May and go away” bearish tendency in May?

Click here for the data in Excel.


This study suggests that the stock market will probably close higher at the end of this year (December 2018) than last year (December 2017) with an 86% probability.
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