The stock market: an extremely long trend that's ending in 2019?

The S&P 500 has now been above its 12 monthly moving average (i.e. 1 year) for 30 consecutive months. This is an extremely long time.

All good things must come to an end. So when will this?
This is what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically) when it spent 30 consecutive months above its 12 month moving average.

Click here to download the data in Excel


As you can see, this study suggests that:

  1. Strength begets more strength. The U.S. stock market will probably do well in the next 6 months.
  2. After 6 months, the U.S. stock market’s performance will start to deteriorate.

This supports my case: bull market for rest of 2018, then a major top somewhere in second half of 2019.
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