The stock market: an extremely long trend that's ending in 2019?


The S&P 500 has now been above its 12 monthly moving average (i.e. 1 year) for 30 consecutive months. This is an extremely long time.

All good things must come to an end. So when will this?
This is what happens next to the S&P 500 (historically) when it spent 30 consecutive months above its 12 month moving average.


Click here to download the data in Excel

Conclusion

As you can see, this study suggests that:

  1. Strength begets more strength. The U.S. stock market will probably do well in the next 6 months.
  2. After 6 months, the U.S. stock market’s performance will start to deteriorate.

This supports my case: bull market for rest of 2018, then a major top somewhere in second half of 2019.
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