Study: what happens next when the Brent-WTI oil spread surges

Everyone seems to be talking about the Brent-WTI spread in oil right now, which is surging. Brent oil is currently more than 15% above WTI oil.

Spreads of this magnitude are uncommon. Here are the historical cases in which the Brent-WTI spread was >15% of WTI’s $ (i.e. very wide spreads), and what happened next to the price of WTI crude oil.

Click here to download the data in Excel.


Look at WTI oil’s 1 week forward return and 3 month forward return, which are both positive 82% of the time. This study suggests that oil’s short-medium term outlook has a bullish bias right now.

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